Are Tampa Bay Home Prices Crashing? Buy now or wait?

Are Tampa Bay Home Prices Crashing?

                                              …BUY NOW OR WAIT?

As an Exclusive Buyer Agency Office we are always knee deep in representing home buyers.  We have been in business 30+ years and still keep an eye on what's happening! This is what we see…

Markets in Florida always cycle. We have lived and survived all kinds of home buying cycles and have experienced every kind of real estate market challenge imaginable like the 3 kinds below:

Are Tampa Bay Home Prices Crashing?

1. A Fast Paced RE market in Great Demand:  This is primarily the Tampa Bay Area Real Estate market where regardless of the price, you could make dozens of offers and not get close to snagging a deal.  We have had clients bid 20% over full price and still not have the top bid. During a red hot market Tampa Bay Homes prices are not crashing, they are appreciating more.

We have had clients offer more than the market value, more than the appraisal and more than other competing offers and still not have the winning bid.  Why? Because our clients chose not to give up every contingencies (a smart move).

2. Year 2008 the Tampa Bay Home Prices really did crash.  We sold nothing but short-sales and foreclosures.  One year all of our closed transactions were short sales

I am not sure which is worse…bidding against dozens of offers or waiting 9 months for a response from the bank to approve the short sale. I had one bank take 11 months to respond and then they decided to not pay the buyers 3% of closing costs, as per contract. When the property did not appraise for the contract price, the bank simply said: “We don’t care…”

3. Storms in Florida: We have sold homes during high winds and the aftermath of Hurricanes. We had to double up on home inspections and renegotiate the contracts price and terms due to force majeure. Who fixes any damage? Will we close on time? Should I wait or find a different home to buy? Tampa Bay home prices still did not crash.

The year 2024 is around the corner, now what ?

So now we are at the end of 2023 where buying a home is not a decision to take lightly. The cost of living is high, the interest rates are the highest in 20 years and Tampa Bay home prices are still holding strong.  

We do understand the high interest rate dilemma. The first house Mike and I bought was with a 17% interest rate.  We paid interest-only on the mortgage for several years because we could not afford to pay the principal…we were house poor. Our furniture came from thrift stores and we shopped at flea markets, but we never regretted buying a home.

During our 30+ years as Florida’s Home Buyer Representatives, we have never had a buyer regret their home purchase, either.  We have however had home buyers regret not buying a property when they had the chance…especially when years ago the Tampa Bay home prices were lower.

When we eventually sold our first home, we got a pretty penny for it…much more than if we had waited for the perfect time or a low interest rate. 

Real Estate Trends circle; there are average years, great years and slow years.  That has happened since the 1900’s but overall Tampa Bay Home prices hold the highest value year over year. Nothing is tanking or depreciating…it's just slowing down a bit.

I am not telling you that you must buy now, but I am saying that you should at least consider the facts that I am going to present. 

Here is Tampa Florida Homebuyers Food for Thought…

  • Tampa homes appreciated 35.16% in the past 2 years.
  • Tampa has appreciated 9.22% since Sept 2022
  • Florida Homes appreciated 73.5% in the past 5 years 
  • Florida homes appreciated 187.025% in the last 10 years. 

Tampa Bay Home Prices and Interest Rates

Don’t you wish you bought property 10 years ago?

More facts to consider…

  • Tampa is in the top 10% nationally for real estate appreciation.
  • Zillow ranked Tampa Florida as the top real estate market in the United States 2022.
  • Florida is the #1 State for Relocation. Florida has overtaken New York as the second most-valuable housing market in the U.S.
  • In the years 2021 + 2022 homes in Florida appreciated 35.16% (Collier county increased 50.35%)
  • Florida is the state with the highest increase in property prices.
  • The Florida housing market is still strong and is predicted to remain so for the next five years.
  • The Tampa Bay home prices has outpaced others due to favorable taxes, large number of buyers, and low home supply. 

Will Tampa bay Home Prices Come Down

Why Home Buyers are Moving to Tampa Bay

  • Perfect weather
  • Beautiful Beaches
  • Low taxes
  • Vibrant Culture
  • Great Place for New Business
  • Always something to do
  • Best choice of Waterfront homes       

Solutions to Lowering your Interest Rate…

What you need to know about Tampa Bay Home Prices

What is the cost difference in an interest rate of 8% or one at 4%...over the life of your loan?  Ask your lender to crunch the numbers for you.

How much would you need to pay for an interest rate buydown to get a lower more manageable interest rate today?  Is it less than paying rent?

How much $ are you paying for rent?  $3000 a month? X12 =$36,000 a year.  How much will you spend renting to wait for a lower interest rate?  


Need a Great Mortgage Broker who can help with that? 
Call Eric Intihar 954 448 9829 (Fairway Independent Mtg. Corp.)

How about a 3-2-1 Mortgage Buydown?

This reduces the loan interest for the first 3 years of the loan.  The initial rate will then be applied to the 4th year and will continue for the life of the mortgage.

The cost of the 3-2-1 buydown mortgage is the total amount that the buyer will save over the 3-year period at the lower rate. Let's ask the seller to contribute…

What about asking for Seller Concessions?

Sellers are more willing to do seller concessions than in the past. This year seller concessions were up 43.1% up from 19.7% in 2022.  One out of three Tampa Bay Properties that sold had some kind of seller concession.

Are you sitting on the sidelines?

  • Yes, you can wait till interest rates go down
  • Yes, you can wait till till the inventory is higher
  • Yes, the cost of homes will keep appreciating

While you wait for that perfect time…

  • The cost of homes is still rising
  • You are burning money on rent or in limbo
  • The appreciation of Tampa Bay will keep increasing
  • High appreciation = a higher sales price
  • You will probably pay a higher price for waiting
  • More inventory means more buyer competition
  • More buyers means bidding wars

How to Deal with Tampa Bay Home Prices

1. Consider a interest buydown
2. Consider a smaller home
3. Consider a less popular area
4. Consider reducing “must haves”


My car story: I am currently in the market to buy a car. At first, I had my list of wants…only one color out of the 5 colors available was acceptable.  It had to have a GPS, leather seats and no black interior…and of course it had to be within my budget.  

Now a couple of months later with no luck searching, I am ready to settle…after all do I really need those particulars?  I know for sure that I do not want to pay more and whatever I end up with, I will like…it's just a matter of a mind set.  Same with a house…it does not need to be perfect, you can always make it perfect.

What is happening right now in Tampa Bay Home Buying?

Home buyers are still buying despite the low inventory of homes.  We are still in the homebuying trenches keeping our finger on the pulse. Real Estate business is slower than usual. (helps seller negotiations)

Prices of homes in Tampa Bay have not crashed, the real estate market in Florida has not tanked and it is not likely there will be any drastic price drops in the future. It’s still a great time to buy!

I predict: more buyers coming in 2024 regardless of the price of homes in Tampa Bay. As more buyers come, sellers will have more offers to pick from. Florida Real Estate in Tampa Bay will still be #1, tops above the Real Estate Market in other states.

What about New Construction?

Builders are cutting back on pre-building speculative homes in Tampa Bay.  There is less customizing, and limited options for changes.  Home prices have increased some, however the sizes of homes being built are smaller, (due to the increase in cost of building material) with more thought given to creative use of smaller spaces.

Buyers Broker of Florida Reviews

Why should you trust my Buyer Broker Opinion?

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I started the first Buyer Brokerage office in South Florida in the 1990’s during a time when Representing Home Buyers was taboo. 

I believed that homebuyers needed to be told the truth during an era where no one did that, as everyone only represented sellers.  

I was spit on, shut out of showing properties and had bricks thrown through my office windows…all because I was a home buyer's “truth-teller”.  I still am and this is my truth:

I have buyer clients who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect scenario before they buy a home in Tampa Bay.  

  • One buyer just bought and paid more than he would have 2 years ago. (Tampa Bay appreciated 34% in the past 2 years).
  • Another buyer just got priced out of buying anything as she no longer qualifies to buy.

I had an out-of-state lady call the office last week who wanted to go look at homes but was not going to buy anything until the interest rates went down, the inventory went up and she was not going to buy during any bidding wars. 

That was unrealistic for several reasons:Tampa Bay Home Prices

If she looks now in her set budget she will not be looking at the same caliber of homes next year because of inflation.  Even with lower than usual Florida appreciation, she will either need to pay more or buy less of a home.

Many buyers are waiting for more inventory to come on the open market. More Tampa Bay Home inventory means there will be more buyers looking.

More buyers mean bidding wars…Tampa Bay Homes are not crashing!

Regardless of when you buy, we will still be here, ready to show you the best of what is available.  We welcome and appreciate your business. Thank you for reading my blog. Eve Alexander

Buyers Broker of Florida  727-202-9130

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